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Tom Wojcik’s September report traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure across oil prices, fuel availability, fertilizer supplies and European crops. It cites tanker traffic down more than 90 percent and warns that food and heating pressures may worsen, while the scale and timing of several effects remain uncertain.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is linking energy, food and winter heating risks across several countries, as tanker traffic through the route has fallen by more than 90 percent. His September report follows those effects from oil prices and fuel stations to fertilizer supplies and European harvest forecasts, using figures reported through September 26, 2026.
Wojcik’s account places the closure in a conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran in late February. He writes that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. The International Energy Agency, as cited in the report, describes the resulting disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. The report says the route normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer.
Oil prices shifted sharply as a fragile ceasefire gave way. Brent crude approached $97 a barrel in early September, rose to around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on September 24, according to Wojcik. On September 22, Iran sent Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. The report says Washington rejected it. It also cites a report that the U.S. president expects bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections.
The effects are uneven. In France, official figures cited by Wojcik showed that 15 percent of fuel stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage. About nine in ten affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew drivers seeking lower prices. In Ukraine, the report says Ukrainian drones hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, while Russia restricted fuel exports after refining output fell to a two-decade low.
Fuel Disruption Reaches Food Supplies
The report’s central concern is that a shipping disruption can affect more than the price paid at fuel pumps. Oil supports transport, while fertilizer is needed for crops; if fertilizer shipments arrive late, a harvest cannot make up the lost growing time. The Food and Agriculture Organization warns, as cited by Wojcik, that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity, according to the report. That is a conditional estimate, not a count of people already affected by this closure. For readers in Europe, the account also links global shipping and energy pressures to crop prospects and the cost of winter heating in countries dependent on imported gas or other fuels.
Wojcik frames the issue through Poland, which he describes as bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945, relying on coal and imported gas for heating, and financing arms purchases with borrowed money. His perspective illustrates how risks that may look separate in international headlines can converge for households and governments.
A Fragile Ceasefire and Longer Routes
Wojcik says a ceasefire earlier in the summer briefly brought oil prices back to pre-war levels, but it did not hold. With Hormuz closed, the report describes shipping detours through the Red Sea and its Bab al-Mandab chokepoint. It says Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port in September, adding another point of concern for maritime traffic.
The report also describes sharp gains for shipping-linked investments. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks crude tanker hiring costs, rose more than 600 percent in the first two months of the war and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. Some supertanker day rates rose from below $100,000 before the war to about $860,000 on September 10. Wojcik notes that the fund is small and its manager says rates could fall if the strait reopens.
European crop pressures had their own recent history. After a 2025 potato glut, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less, according to the report. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organization expects a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade. The supplied report excerpt ends while discussing wheat prices, so it does not provide the full figures or subsequent detail.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— Food and Agriculture Organization, as cited in Tom Wojcik’s report
Harvest Effects Remain Ahead
The closure’s duration, the prospects for another ceasefire and the timing of any reopening remain unclear in the supplied report. It does not establish how much of the cited oil-price movement or crop risk can be attributed solely to Hormuz, or how long fuel supply problems in France will last. The French government ruled out a shortage even as some stations ran dry.
Food impacts are forecasts, not final harvest results. The FAO warning concerns possible effects through 2027, and the World Food Programme figure is an estimate under sustained high oil prices. Wojcik’s excerpt stops during its discussion of wheat prices and does not include the full article’s treatment of Poland’s winter heating outlook or later developments.
Reopening and Harvest Data Ahead
The next indicators are whether negotiations produce a ceasefire or phased reopening, whether tanker traffic resumes through Hormuz, and how oil prices respond. Further updates to French station availability and Russian fuel exports would show whether pump and diesel pressures are easing or persisting.
For food supplies, harvest results and fertilizer availability will clarify how much of the projected pressure reaches consumers. The report points to late 2026 and 2027 as the period when potential yield losses could become more visible. Its figures are a September snapshot, not a final account of the conflict’s economic effects.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz closure is affecting oil shipping and prices, while raising risks for fertilizer supplies, food production and winter heating.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
The report says tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent since the closure began in March.
Does the report say France is running out of fuel?
No. It says the French government ruled out a national shortage. Official figures cited in the report showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, with many affected stations belonging to TotalEnergies.
When could food supply effects become clearer?
The FAO warning cited by Wojcik points to tighter supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The eventual effect depends on fertilizer availability and harvest outcomes.
Source: hn
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